The Way This Bizarre Campaign Redefined the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Formula.

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still