A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
